A Strategy Bayesian Model to Predict Profit of Construction Projects

Title
A Strategy Bayesian Model to Predict Profit of Construction Projects
Author(s)
김상용박성혁[박성혁]
Keywords
Optimum Tender Price; Competitive Bidding; Bayesian Regression
Issue Date
201109
Publisher
대한건축학회
Citation
Architectural Research, v.13, no.3, pp.49 - 56
Abstract
Competitive bidding in construction is concerned with contractors making strategic decisions in respect of determination of bid price if contractors opt to bid. This study presents a strategy model for deciding optimum tender price with reflecting appropriate profit in competitive bidding using Bayesian regression analysis (BRA). The purpose of the developed model is to help contractors to secure suitable profitability by predicting the actual profit based on key variables. They may affect construction cost at bidding phase, ultimately which help contractors to secure high quality output. The model was tested empirically by application to a bidding dataset collected from a large South Korea contractor. BRA allows contractors to estimate more accurate actual profit by reflecting not only objective information but also subjective experiences and judgments. Consequently, the model can contribute to improvement of decision-making process for setting an optimum tender price.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/YU.REPOSITORY/24483
ISSN
1229-6163
Appears in Collections:
건축학부 > 건축학부 > Articles
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